President Donald Trump waived major new sanctions against Russia on October 16, easing economic pressure on Moscow as the U.S.–Iran war drives up fuel prices and fighting intensifies in Ukraine.

The decision suspended sanctions and tariffs established under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, although earlier restrictions remain in place. Lawmakers from both parties condemned the waiver, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the administration would spend up to 60 days evaluating its economic consequences.

There is a growing connection between the two wars. Washington is trying to contain energy prices while offering Russia economic incentives to negotiate, but Moscow hasn’t demonstrated a corresponding willingness to end its invasion.

MIL forecasts for October 18–25

The most likely outcome over the next week is continued fighting, with Russian and Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure and further disruption to commercial shipping around the Strait of Hormuz.

Neither conflict currently shows the reciprocal commitments needed for a lasting agreement. Washington’s economic incentives could create opportunities for negotiations, but there’s little evidence that Moscow or Tehran is prepared to make substantial concessions.

Forecast through October 25	Probability
Russia conducts another documented strike on Ukrainian energy infrastructure	90%
Ukraine conducts another documented strike on Russian oil production, refining or export infrastructure	80%
Another commercial vessel is struck by a projectile or drone in or near the Strait of Hormuz	70%
Houthi forces conduct another confirmed strike against Saudi infrastructure	55%
Ukraine’s Starshield speed restriction is officially lifted	35%
Iran and the U.S. reach an agreement restoring substantially unrestricted commercial passage through Hormuz	15%
Russia and Ukraine both publicly confirm a reciprocal energy ceasefire	10%
Washington reverses its October 16 Russia sanctions waiver	10%

The strongest forecasts concern continued energy attacks in Ukraine. Russia’s repeated strikes and Ukraine’s resumed refinery campaign suggest neither government has accepted the proposed ceasefire. The 10% probability of a reciprocal agreement reflects the additional requirement that both countries publicly confirm their participation.

Maritime disruption remains the leading near-term risk in the Iran conflict. Iranian officials have described an effort to maintain economic pressure ahead of the American midterm elections, while the conditions attached to Tehran’s proposed Hormuz reopening remain unacceptable to Washington.

The Houthi forecast carries greater uncertainty. Recent attacks demonstrate the group’s willingness to strike Saudi targets, but another operation depends on military capabilities, political decisions and the possibility of renewed regional negotiations.

MIL’s existing energy-ceasefire pilot remains separate. Its registered 20% probability of reciprocal public confirmation by November 30 and its 15% current-evidence comparator aren’t changed by these shorter-term forecasts. CL should evaluate each prediction against its original deadline and resolution criteria.

Russia’s energy deal hasn’t produced a ceasefire

Trump’s agreement with Moscow would initially bring more than 300,000 metric tons of Russian diesel into American markets. U.S. envoys told Ukrainian officials that the arrangement could encourage Russian President Vladimir Putin to return to negotiations.

The economic benefits remain uncertain. The initial supply amounts to less than a day’s diesel consumption by the American transportation sector, while the agreement could provide Russia with additional export revenue.

Trump’s proposed energy ceasefire has also failed to produce reciprocal restraint. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported 76 Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy, oil and gas infrastructure during the week following Trump’s announcement. Neither Moscow nor Kyiv had formally confirmed the agreement.

Ukraine resumed refinery strikes October 15 after a brief pause. On Sunday, Ukrainian drones struck an oil export terminal and depot in St. Petersburg, setting both facilities ablaze.

Russia’s negotiating position remains uncompromising. On October 16, Putin declared that a proposed 660-kilometer security zone inside Ukraine wouldn’t be negotiable in future peace talks.

Europe is taking the opposite approach to Washington’s sanctions relief. The European Union added 1,569 Russian individuals and companies to its sanctions list October 12, targeting suppliers and executives supporting Russia’s military industry.

Ukraine’s military position remains mixed

American restrictions on Ukraine’s satellite communications have added another complication to its defense. Ukraine is negotiating with SpaceX and the Pentagon to remove a 160-kilometer-per-hour speed limit on Starshield, the military satellite service used by Ukrainian drones.

Initial communications outages were resolved, but the speed restriction remained in place as of October 17. The restrictions have interfered with Ukrainian interceptor drones, although Trump denies ordering them. Zelenskyy said Sunday that American intelligence sharing had resumed after a temporary interruption.

Ukraine has also reported battlefield gains. A senior commander claimed Ukrainian forces recovered 277 square kilometers and 16 settlements during Operation Vivaldi in Donetsk, although the territorial figures haven’t been independently verified.

Those gains complicate Moscow’s claims of continued battlefield dominance, but they don’t eliminate Ukraine’s dependence on foreign communications, intelligence and military supplies.

Iran’s maritime attacks increase economic pressure

The U.S.–Iran war presents Washington with a different problem. Iran is using attacks on commercial shipping to increase the economic consequences of continued fighting.

Two senior Iranian officials told Reuters that Tehran has changed its maritime tactics to keep oil prices elevated and influence the November 3 midterm elections.

The Strait of Hormuz carried approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade before the war. Iranian attacks and shipping restrictions have sharply reduced traffic, while Brent crude closed at $109.86 per barrel on October 16.

Iran-aligned Houthi forces have also intensified attacks on Saudi Arabia amid renewed fighting in Yemen. An October 10 strike on Riyadh’s international airport killed 13 people, while an October 13 attack damaged Saudi Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran.

Diplomacy hasn’t stopped the escalation. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi reaffirmed Sunday that Tehran could reopen Hormuz within a week if Washington accepted conditions including lifting its blockade and easing oil sanctions. Disagreement over Iran’s nuclear program continues to obstruct negotiations.

Financial interests add another complication

Economic negotiations involving administration officials are also raising questions about potential conflicts of interest.

Reuters reported that Jared Kushner and Russian investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev participated in discussions involving possible American investment in the Nord Stream pipelines and sales of Russian energy company Lukoil’s assets.

One proposal involved American and Gulf investors acquiring energy assets if Washington relaxed sanctions. The discussions illustrate how commercial opportunities could become part of diplomatic negotiations, although no evidence establishes that Kushner’s personal financial interests directed American policy.

The administration has presented economic cooperation as a way to encourage negotiations. The unresolved question is whether those incentives can produce Russian concessions or simply provide economic benefits while the war continues.

What to watch through October 25

The next week will test whether Washington’s economic diplomacy produces measurable results. In Ukraine, the main indicators are a reciprocal reduction in energy attacks, restored military communications and intelligence support, and evidence that Russia is reconsidering its territorial demands.

In the Middle East, the most consequential indicators are the frequency of attacks on commercial shipping, additional Houthi strikes against Saudi infrastructure, and progress toward reopening Hormuz.

The risk of further escalation remains substantial in both conflicts. Russia has continued attacking Ukrainian infrastructure despite American concessions, while Iran has demonstrated that it can impose economic costs through maritime disruption even under sustained military pressure.

For now, Washington’s attempts to reduce the economic consequences of the wars haven’t produced a corresponding reduction in the fighting.