MIL Weekly, October 24, 2026
Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a limited ceasefire, but the fighting hasn’t slowed down. Moscow is still attacking Ukraine’s power grid, Washington has opened a path for Russian diesel shipments, and strikes across the Persian Gulf are raising the risk of a wider war with Iran.
Forecast board for October 25 through November 1
These estimates cover the coming week, with the most likely events listed first. They’re provisional forecasts based on the latest developments and don’t change the previously registered October 18–25 predictions.
| Event | Probability |
|---|---|
| Russia launches another documented attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure | 90% |
| Ukraine strikes Russian oil infrastructure again | 80% |
| Houthis carry out another confirmed attack on Saudi infrastructure | 75% |
| Another commercial vessel is struck in or near the Strait of Hormuz | 70% |
| The Oleshky humanitarian ceasefire takes effect on October 27 | 70% |
| Another commercial vessel is struck in the Black Sea | 50% |
| The United States launches a major new strike against Iran | 15% |
| Washington and Tehran implement an agreement substantially reopening Hormuz | 10% |
A local ceasefire, but no end to Russia's energy strikes
Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a temporary ceasefire around Oleshky, with fighting supposed to stop on October 27 so humanitarian operations can begin two days later. Both militaries have confirmed the arrangement, although it doesn’t extend to the rest of Ukraine or cover attacks on energy infrastructure.
However, the attacks haven’t stopped. Russia struck 28 energy facilities during October 18–19, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, leaving roughly 550,000 households without electricity.
There has been some progress elsewhere. A separate pause around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant allowed the IAEA to finish repairs to electrical infrastructure, showing that the two sides can still cooperate on limited humanitarian and safety issues.
Washington’s decision to ease restrictions on Russian diesel is also beginning to have practical consequences. A tanker loaded about 40,000 metric tons at Russia’s Primorsk port on October 22, although its final destination and buyer haven’t been confirmed.
Ukraine keeps hitting back as Black Sea risks grow
Ukraine hasn’t stopped targeting Russian infrastructure. Drones struck a facility in the Tambov region on October 20, starting a fire that may have involved the Druzhba oil pipeline, although the exact target and any lasting damage remain unclear.
Ukrainian forces also regained an important capability after restrictions on Starlink and Starshield service were lifted for high-speed platforms. The restrictions had affected drone operations by limiting service according to vehicle speed, rather than reducing ordinary internet bandwidth.
Farther south, the Black Sea is becoming more dangerous for commercial shipping. The cargo ship Khoryv sank near Romania on October 23, leaving one person dead and three missing, and Romanian officials blamed Russia for the attack.
Russia’s responsibility for the sinking hasn’t been independently established, but NATO is taking the threat seriously. The alliance has already announced additional surveillance using aircraft, drones, and radar systems.
Attacks in the Gulf are raising the stakes with Iran
The conflict involving Iran is putting more pressure on Saudi Arabia and commercial shipping. An October 21 attack on Dammam’s airport reportedly killed two people, while Saudi authorities issued further missile alerts on October 24 as the Houthis claimed new operations.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed seven vessels had been struck on October 22, but independent reporting hasn’t confirmed that number. Iranian officials have also discussed attacking undersea cables if the United States or Israel launches another major assault, potentially threatening communications beyond the immediate conflict zone.
Washington has another reason for concern. An intelligence memo warned that Iranian plots targeting American personnel had reached advanced stages, although the assessment doesn’t establish when or whether an attack will happen.
Tehran hasn’t closed the door on diplomacy. President Masoud Pezeshkian called for another attempt at negotiations on October 24, while Iranian officials suggested that reopening the Strait of Hormuz could depend on Washington lifting its blockade.
Private financial interests deserve scrutiny
Washington’s Russian diesel waiver creates opportunities for businesses even as the war continues. Earlier reporting also described a proposed multibillion-dollar oil deal involving business figures with ties to the families of Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.
Those connections raise questions about financial incentives, particularly when private business opportunities overlap with government negotiations. There’s no established evidence, however, that the proposed deal influenced U.S. policy or that it’s connected to this week’s diesel shipment.
What to watch through November 1
The Oleshky ceasefire faces its first test on October 27. If both sides honor the agreement and humanitarian operations proceed, it could provide a useful opening for further negotiations, although there’s no guarantee that cooperation will spread beyond the immediate area.
The more serious escalation risks remain Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s power grid, Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil facilities, and growing threats to shipping in the Gulf and Black Sea. Another major attack could quickly overshadow the week’s diplomatic progress, especially if American forces or personnel become direct targets.